RAM prices have been rising sharply in recent months, which has begun to have a direct impact on the smartphone industry, with pessimistic expectations for the coming period. According to a recent report issued by research company Counterpoint, expectations for the phone market have been revised in 2026, as the global market is expected to contract by 2.1% instead of stabilizing as previously expected.

Phone prices will rise in 2026 due to the RAM crisis

The biggest concern, according to the report, is that the wave of rising memory prices has not yet reached its peak. Counterpoint warns that memory prices may rise by an additional 40% until the second quarter of 2026, which will increase pressure on manufacturers and directly affect production costs.

Currently, the cost of basic components (Bill of Materials) for budget phones has increased by 25% compared to the beginning of the year. While mid-range phones recorded an increase of about 15%, while the costs of flagship phones increased by 10%. If expectations for the second quarter of 2026 are achieved, these costs may witness an additional increase ranging between 8% and 15%.

Counterpoint expects that this situation will lead to a decline in smartphone shipments for most companies. After estimates indicated potential growth for companies such as Oppo and Vivo, these expectations were revised to indicate a decline in shipments. Xiaomi, especially Honor, is also expected to be affected than previous estimates.

Even major companies like Apple and Samsung will not be immune to these effects, but their situation remains relatively better compared to competitors. Counterpoint’s senior analyst, Yang Wang, commented that Apple and Samsung have greater flexibility to deal with the upcoming challenges. While other companies will have difficulty balancing maintaining market share and profit margins, especially Chinese companies, as 2026 progresses.

Indeed, some companies have begun to adapt to rising costs by restructuring their product lines and reducing some specifications. Analyst Shenghao Bai explained that some models are seeing reductions in components such as camera modules, periscope zoom lenses, displays, audio components, and of course memory capacities.

The report also warned that the average selling price of smartphones in 2026 will be higher than expected, as estimates were raised from an increase of 3.9% to 6.9%. This means that companies may seek to push users towards expensive phones, since the impact of higher memory prices is relatively less in the flagship segment, where memory represents a smaller portion of the total manufacturing cost. See also: Launch of the Samsung Exynos 2600 processor with 2nm technology.

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